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View Full Version : I know it's a hard question....



Isafari
28-10-2008, 02:33 PM
.....but, where do you think the dollar is heading?
I bought about 75% of my TC's and $'s in the summer when it was $2 to 1.
I still need to buy some before we travel in December but at around $1.50 to the 1 at the moment seems really awful to me!

I don't know if I should wait in the hope that the rate gets better or cut my losses now in case it gets worse :(

Anyone else in this situation right now?

daveann
28-10-2008, 02:38 PM
im really worried its gonna get worse and for sure it aint gonna rise much before we go next week and i still need some more dollars :(
its my fault its falling i have never been when its been a brilliant exchange rate lol

Taja
28-10-2008, 02:38 PM
Diane, I'm not in your situation, but I'm guessing the dollar is going to remain fairly strong against other currencies. I could be wrong, particularly with the presidential election only a week away. That result could change everything--or have absolutely no effect. But based on what's going on in the financial world at the moment, I think it's likely to remain close to its current position.

Not much help, I'm afraid. :rolleyes:

Wendy
28-10-2008, 05:32 PM
There's a rate decision by the Fed bank tomorrow when they are expected to lower rates by another 50 points, after the news today about consumer spending and how bad it is, there is talk that it could drop by 75 points. This would normally mean that the dollar would weaken and we'd get a better exchange rate. Who knows now :shrug:

We are in exactly the same position Diane, except I wasn't sensible and never bought any $s when the rate was up :(

I'm just going to leave it and see what happens, I don't think it will drop much lower than it is though.

lisaw
28-10-2008, 05:46 PM
I haven't a clue about these things but DH was saying the other day on the news they said it isn't expected to get much better for the next year :(

I bought some TC's home with me from last year that we got at nearly $2 and I bought some more a few weeks ago at $1.75 so at least I feel I have spread the rate a little bit.

keith
28-10-2008, 05:54 PM
We've got a few dollars over the last weeks... I truly think at this stage the world economic position is too interelated and huge to predict properly so it's basically going to be a guess whatever you do.

Need to remember that even 1.5* is better than 1*

I guess my random thoughts are that considering the US is in as much trouble as the rest of the world, some would say MORE trouble and further into the recession, that the $ is currently overvalued v the rest of the world... so I keep expecting the rate to get better for the

BUT I read a report today saying that people considered that the action from the US bailout fund was more direct and positive than the UK one. Also that interest rates had a lot further to fall in the UK vs the US so all that played to people not wanting to buy s right now.

I just think it's all down to traders who make most money when they drive down the price of a (or other commodity) and then jump in to buy back pushing it further up and making more money

Tink
28-10-2008, 10:26 PM
I heard a news report today that said the foreclosure rate on houses in the UK has risen by 72% (over this time last year, I think). Not sure if that matters at all, but it does indicate that the UK economy is having some issues too. :(

keith
28-10-2008, 11:02 PM
I heard a news report today that said the foreclosure rate on houses in the UK has risen by 72% (over this time last year, I think). Not sure if that matters at all, but it does indicate that the UK economy is having some issues too. :(

oh gosh issues and THEN some for sure... but what seems strange is that it doesn't seem comparatively more severe than the US. That's why the very weak right now seems kinda strange I think

Tink
28-10-2008, 11:38 PM
When I heard the report I was surprised. I guess I thought that the scarcity of homes (as compared to the US) and the higher cost of homes (in general, again as compared to the US) would serve as a buffer for the UK economy?

I mean, sure the UK housing market would fall off a bit, but to have it drop as much as is being said was a real surprise to me.

I've always pictured the UK as far stronger economically (among other strengths) than the US. Our economy is, and has been for some time a serious game of smoke and mirrors. :(

keith
28-10-2008, 11:48 PM
Well I think you need to look at the % increase of repossessions in context that there were very very few this time last year so any increase would be a relatively high %.

HOWEVER the high prices are really the Achilles heal. The prices have been SO out of control and add in 100% mortgages and interest rates, it doesn't take much of a blip to cause some real problems.

Many building sites have stopped half way through developments because the funds have disappeared. So from that perspective it's pretty bad and not hit the bottom yet IMHO

HOWEVER, although we've had banks nationalised, we havent had banks of such huge importance as the US ones which such a huge % of mortgages run into trouble yet.

I think the problem is that the situation we're in now is confidence, or lack of, based. In effect it's not based on reality. There was a perception that everything was great and everyone could buy anything and traders could buy/sell whatever they wanted and now the bottom has fallen out of the whole thing so even if an economy or a sector IS relatively sound, no one will take the chance.

Either way, it's probably getting to be a decent time for you to visit the UK ;-)

Wendy
29-10-2008, 09:21 AM
I agree Keith, I think it is a lack of confidence as far as the markets are concerned. When this happened before I worked in conveyancing and the amount of people in negative equity was really high. People just got to the stage where they were handing back the keys because they just couldn't cope anymore :(

The banks and building societies have caused the problems with the mortgages as far as I'm concerned. If they hadn't been willing to lend 5 times or more on salaries, then house prices wouldn't have increased like they have :shrug:

I know I sound really old, but if they had left it at 3 times one income or 21/2 times a joint income then there wouldn't have been so much money around and people couldn't have asked so much for property :shrug: Sometimes the old values are the best.

We bought in 1990 and our house is worth a heck of a lot more than it was then - I think its a silly amount of money to increase in 18 years and in all honesty it's not really worth anymore because prices have increased so much. Trust me, I don't live in a palace either USCWest can tell you that, just a normal 3 bedroomed house.

So much for New Labour's end to boom and bust :rolleyes008: :lol:

As for the $/ it has risen a little bit overnight.

Taja
29-10-2008, 01:15 PM
Forgot to mention that historically--within my lifetime, anyway!--the value of the USD to BPS has been in the range of 1.35:1 to 1.50:1. So anything over $1.50 exchange rate is above historical norms.

eeyoreguy
29-10-2008, 01:26 PM
Forgot to mention that historically--within my lifetime, anyway!--the value of the USD to BPS has been in the range of 1.35:1 to 1.50:1. So anything over $1.50 exchange rate is above historical norms.

<img src="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/DEXUSUK_Max_630_378.png" border="0">

Taja
29-10-2008, 01:49 PM
<img src="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/DEXUSUK_Max_630_378.png" border="0">

I go back much farther than that, eeyoreguy! I'm a senior citizen! :lol:

caz1712
29-10-2008, 10:57 PM
I know I was holding off until I had more to buy, wish I had bought at least some during the summer when the rate was at its best but after seeing it drop to below 1.50 the other day we bit the bullet and bought all our $$$ today with tesco at 1.54. Just didn't want to take the chance of it nose-diving again!

xxx

Wendy
30-10-2008, 10:09 AM
Well it seems a bit better today Thomas Exchange have a rate of $1.62 today so it's going in the right direction for us :D

Isafari
30-10-2008, 10:50 AM
Well it seems a bit better today Thomas Exchange have a rate of $1.62 today so it's going in the right direction for us :D

Oh...that is better :yes: I just rang Thompsons TA....they will offer $1.59