Tropical Storm Emily to impact Florida

[DisneyFreak]

UPDATE: Wednesday, Aug 3rd 11:00am



TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DEPARTED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS
LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO WIND SHEAR. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. THE LAST
WINDS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHILE EXITING THE
CYCLONE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS
ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT
SHEAR PATTERN NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
MOVES OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS EMILY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. ASSUMING EMILY CAN MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP
CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE STEERING PATTERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 16.7N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.5N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 21.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 05/1200Z 23.0N 76.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 26.6N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 30.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 34.1N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

[Isafari]

YAY

[kazzaqld]

Stay safe Diane! Thinking of you and everyone due to go in the next few days.

[DisneyFreak]

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT EMILY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THE
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST...AND IT IS VERY WEAK ABOVE 700 MB. THE JET DATA
INDICATED 300 MB WINDS BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 45 KT. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAD TO ABORT ITS MISSION DUE
TO AVIONICS PROBLEMS.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARD
DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD
TURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72
HR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA
WILL EVOLVE INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH OF EMILY. THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 36-48
HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
STORM...AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS YET
ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE SHIPS...
LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR DUE
TO SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 HR SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

[daveann]

stay safe everyone

[DisneyFreak]

For now the threat of Emily is gone. There is still a 60% chance that she could flare up again but she would be even less of a threat now to Florida.