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Tropical Storm Emily to impact Florida

Discussion in 'General' started by DisneyFreak, Aug 2, 2011.

  1. DisneyFreak
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    DisneyFreak Serious Forum Regular

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    UPDATE: Wednesday, Aug 3rd 11:00am



    TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
    1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011

    SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
    ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DEPARTED EARLIER THIS
    MORNING. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS
    LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO WIND SHEAR. THE LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. THE LAST
    WINDS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHILE EXITING THE
    CYCLONE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS
    ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT
    SHEAR PATTERN NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER
    MOVES OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS
    ANTICIPATED WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN
    OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT
    DAY OR TWO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE
    FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS EMILY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
    ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.

    THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
    DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. ASSUMING EMILY CAN MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP
    CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
    AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
    IN THE STEERING PATTERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
    WESTWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ALONG
    THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

    THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE DOMINICAN
    REPUBLIC...HAITI...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 03/1500Z 16.7N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 04/0000Z 17.5N 71.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 04/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
    36H 05/0000Z 21.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
    48H 05/1200Z 23.0N 76.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
    72H 06/1200Z 26.6N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
    96H 07/1200Z 30.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
    120H 08/1200Z 34.1N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
    </pre>





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    Last edited: Aug 3, 2011
  2. Isafari
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    Isafari Wild Animal Expert

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  3. kazzaqld
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    kazzaqld Addicted to Mickey

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    Stay safe Diane! Thinking of you and everyone due to go in the next few days. :unsure:
     
  4. DisneyFreak
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    TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
    500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

    DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
    HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT EMILY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. THE
    CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO
    SOUTHWEST...AND IT IS VERY WEAK ABOVE 700 MB. THE JET DATA
    INDICATED 300 MB WINDS BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN
    UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
    ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS
    PRODUCING VERY STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE DATA
    SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 45 KT. IT SHOULD
    BE NOTED THAT THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAD TO ABORT ITS MISSION DUE
    TO AVIONICS PROBLEMS.

    THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
    A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
    THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
    SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
    GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN
    CONSISTENCY...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE
    PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARD
    DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD
    TURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO
    BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE
    CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72
    HR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
    INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE
    MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

    THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA
    WILL EVOLVE INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH OF EMILY. THE
    STORM IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 36-48
    HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN
    ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
    STORM...AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS YET
    ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE SHIPS...
    LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW
    INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR DUE
    TO SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL
    STRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 HR SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL.

    THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR
    SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS
    NORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
    SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    12H 04/1800Z 17.9N 72.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 05/0600Z 20.0N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 05/1800Z 22.5N 76.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 06/0600Z 24.7N 77.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
    72H 07/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
    96H 08/0600Z 32.5N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
    120H 09/0600Z 36.0N 65.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
    </pre>






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  5. daveann
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    daveann Addicted to Mickey

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    stay safe everyone :hug2:
     
  6. DisneyFreak
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    DisneyFreak Serious Forum Regular

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    For now the threat of Emily is gone. There is still a 60% chance that she could flare up again but she would be even less of a threat now to Florida.
     

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